Introduction

In the digital age, TikTok has emerged as a global social media powerhouse, and its e-commerce landscape has become a focal point for countless industry players. The toys and hobbies sector, a significant segment of this landscape, is undergoing an unprecedented transformation. According to data from Gloda, the U.S. TikTok toys and hobbies market in February 2025 showed a complex and dynamic situation. While declining sales and volumes cast a shadow over the industry, a closer examination reveals hidden opportunities and challenges beneath the surface. This article will provide a comprehensive analysis of the current market trends from multiple perspectives, shedding light on the path forward for industry participants.

I. Market Overview: The Hidden Signals Behind the Decline

In February 2025, the U.S. TikTok toys and hobbies market saw a sales revenue of $13.037 million, a 6.97% drop from the previous month. The total sales volume also decreased by 11.24%, reaching 663,000 units. This downward trend has raised concerns. However, the average transaction price increased by 4.80%, reaching $19.7, and the market share grew by 0.04%, standing at 0.58%. These seemingly contradictory figures actually reveal profound changes occurring in the market.

From a macro perspective, the decline in sales and volumes reflects short-term fluctuations in consumer behavior, possibly influenced by seasonal factors, the initial signs of market saturation, or changes in the macroeconomic environment. However, the rise in average transaction prices sends a positive signal, indicating that consumers are increasingly valuing the quality and worth of toys and hobbies products. The market is gradually shifting towards higher-priced items, presenting an excellent opportunity for brands and merchants focused on creating high-quality, personalized products. This trend suggests that the competitive landscape of the industry is quietly reshaping.

II. The Sharp Decline in Live Streaming Influencers: The Urgent Need for Content Innovation

Live streaming, a key driver of TikTok e-commerce, has seen a significant change in the number of influencers, which is worth exploring. Data shows that the number of live streaming influencers decreased by 22.89% month-over-month, a drop far exceeding other metrics and causing alarm. Influencers are the vital link between brands and consumers, and their reduction directly weakens brands' exposure and sales conversion capabilities on the platform.

Several factors may contribute to this phenomenon. First, consumers' novelty for live shopping is waning, and they now demand higher quality and more innovative content. As a result, some influencers who cannot adapt have exited the market. Second, changes in platform rules or algorithms may have altered the distribution of live streaming traffic, making it difficult for smaller influencers to gain sufficient support. Third, intensified market competition has led to the monopolization of top influencers by a few major brands, leaving smaller brands struggling to attract high-quality influencers. Faced with this dilemma, industry participants must reassess their live streaming content strategies and increase investment in content innovation, influencer cultivation, and exploration of new cooperation models to reinvigorate live e-commerce.

III. Shift Towards Higher-Priced Products: The Inevitable Trend of Consumption Upgrade

The decline in sales being smaller than the drop in volumes, coupled with a 4.8% increase in average transaction prices, clearly illustrates the market's shift towards higher-priced products. Behind this trend lies a profound change in consumer demand. As living standards improve, consumers are no longer satisfied with low-cost, mass-produced items. Instead, they place greater emphasis on product quality, design, unique functionality, and brand cultural connotations.

For businesses, this means shifting from a focus on volume growth to enhancing product value. Companies need to increase R&D investment to create innovative and differentiated products, elevate their brand image through storytelling and emotional marketing to strengthen the emotional connection with consumers, and optimize supply chain management to ensure stable product quality and controllable costs. Additionally, merchants should leverage platform data tools to gain precise insights into consumer needs, enabling personalized customization and targeted marketing to meet the diverse demands of different consumer groups.

IV. Decline in Active Sales Data: The Growing Pains and Opportunities of Industry Adjustment

The simultaneous decline in the number of active products and stores is a clear indication that the market is in a period of adjustment. The number of active products decreased by 8.28% month-over-month, and the number of active stores dropped by 6.59%. This suggests that the industry is undergoing a process of "survival of the fittest." Market demand is increasingly concentrated on specific products and high-quality suppliers, and consumers' sensitivity to brand and product quality is continuously rising.

For existing merchants, this presents both challenges and opportunities. The challenge lies in the intensifying competition, where only brands and merchants with core competitiveness can stand out. The opportunity is that market share will be concentrated among leading enterprises, providing greater room for growth for those who can accurately grasp market demand and continuously innovate. Merchants should seize this opportunity to strengthen their capabilities in product innovation, brand building, customer service, and overall operational efficiency to adapt to market changes and enhance competitiveness.

Conclusion: Embracing Change to Lead the Future of the Industry

Although the U.S. TikTok toys and hobbies market has experienced a short-term decline, this is a necessary stage for the industry to mature and upgrade. Key areas such as live streaming content innovation, development of higher-priced products, and optimization of active sales data are where industry players need to focus and make efforts. In this process, only those who keep pace with market trends and are willing to change and innovate can remain invincible in fierce competition.

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